Citizen Perceptions on EU Security and Defence Integration: A Big Data-based Analysis

Ángel Saz-Carranza, Óscar Fernández Fernández, Marie Vandendriessche, Javier Franco & Núria Agell

As European integration has advanced, public opinion on the EU has increasingly come into the spotlight. Yet when it comes to the EU’s Common Security and Foreign Policy (CFSP) and its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), research into acceptability of integration is still “in its infancy” (Biedenkopf et al., 2021, p. 339).

Building on an analytical framework of acceptability developed by Michaels & Kissack (2021), this paper sets out to investigate public beliefs and perceptions through big data-based analysis of security-related news published around the world. Our research design complements more traditional measurements of citizens’ perceptions such as opinion surveys and contributes to the growing body of literature on public opinion and acceptability in the EU.

Basing ourselves on all web-based news published on security-related matters from 2017 to 2022, we first examine how public opinion in the EU and its Member States varies at key moments related to the EU’s CSDP, including reforms and mission launches. Our results reveal broad and steady acceptability among the public for EU efforts in defence and security, although attention to practical details related to EU defence and security operations and policies is low.

We subsequently analyse in more detail the crisis moment of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand its effects on public perceptions of the EU’s role in security and defence. We find that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment, but rather than overturning existing trends in acceptability among the public, the invasion has accelerated them.

In Member States where historical changes have been made to security and defence-related policies following the invasion, our data furthermore shows that the public was largely supportive of the EU’s role in security and defence even prior to the invasion, and that acceptability of CSDP can go hand in hand with NATO membership.